Montney Part 1: That Drop Caught My Eye
Editor’s Note: While VISAGE rebranded to VERDAZO in April 2016, we haven’t changed the VISAGE name in our previous blog posts. We’re proud of our decade of work as VISAGE and that lives on within these blogs. Enjoy.
My original intention today was to provide you with a detailed overview of the Montney Play. That was until a significant drop in BC Montney gas production caught my eye… so I have decided to focus on that for today’s blog.
Montney Now Accounts for 30% of BC’s Gas Production
In the last 4.5 years, Montney has grown from 2.5% of BC’s Gas production to just over 30%. Of the recent 12.7% drop in BC gas production, Montney accounts for 32% of that. So what is triggering this drop in production and who in the Montney has been affected? The key contributor was a temporary shut-in due to the scheduled McMahon gas processing plant turnaround.
A Closer Look at the Montney
Montney production in BC has dropped 13.4% (151.6 mmcf/day) from May to June. This drop is attributable to only a 3% drop in producing wells (which works out to 23 wells seemingly affected by the plant turn-around). For your interest I have also included the Nymex spot price on this chart to show that Montney growth has continued in spite of lower gas prices.
The Significant Seven
There are seven companies who appear to be hit the hardest by the temporary shut-in. They have all seen a drop from May to June of greater than 5 mmcf/day. Collectively they account for 92% of the recent drop in BC Montney production.
|Company (well count)||Drop (mmcf/d)||Percent Drop||May 2011 (mmcf/d)||June 2011 (mmcf/d)|
|ENCANA CORP (253)||-59.3||-16||359.8||300.5|
|ARC RSRCS LTD (94)||-21.8||-10||211.9||190.1|
|PENGROWTH CORP (10)||-18.6||-100||18.6||0.0|
|PAINTED PONY PETRL L (7)||-13.4||-100||13.4||0.0|
|CDN NAT RSRCS LMTD (20)||-10.2||-16||65.3||55.0|
|MURPHY OIL (120)||-8.2||-4||194.6||186.3|
|SHELL CDA LMTD (114)||-7.7||-5||163.9||156.2|
Stay tuned over the next week or two for more on the Montney. As always we welcome your feedback and suggestions about what you would like to see in upcoming blogs.
Disclaimer of Analysis Results
It is important to note when doing any of this kind of analysis that the selection of wells be scrutinized for meaningful results. The results presented are intended to fuel your understanding of VISAGE capabililties with gDC data. We would be happy to run analyses for specific well lists that you may have. Please feel free to contact us.
Data Disclaimer: gDC is the data source for the information presented in this blog post. If you see issues with the data or have concerns about the well list used for this posting please contact us.